Tuesday, September 29, 2009

The Black Swan Event


According to Nassim Nicholas Taleb's theory, a Black Swan is a highly improbable event with three principal characteristics: it is unpredictable; it carries a massive impact; and after the event we concoct an explanation that makes it appear less random.

Tomorrow I move house again - from the beach house in the bush perched on the estuary, to the crib on the beautiful Otago Peninsula, yards away from the sea. Quite close to the albatross and penguin and gannet colonies.

We call it "Cape Cod". We don't just see the birds there, we will live amongst them. Godwits, gulls, herons, stilts, ducks, oystercatchers, spoonbills, and of course: the black swans.

2 comments:

lmrb said...

Oooohhh, a crib on the peninsular - how wonderful. the peninsular is truly one of the world's wonders. Allan's Beach was my Dad's post during WWII - his name was Allan, just a coincidence. He rode there several times a week from Musselburgh Rise on his horse - a retired race horse - petrol was scarce. Enjoy paradise. I am soooooo envious.

The Paradoxical Cat said...

Thanks :-)

Not so sure you'd have envied me today, because for a while there was a tsunami threat for the new house! I'm so glad it wasn't washed away and yes it's paradise - a kind of bleak wild windswept paradise...